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ANALYSIS: The Delta variant and its possible future mutations
Tue, 2021-11-16 09:09 — mike kraftThe Delta variant, first detected in India in December 2020, remains the most worrisome version of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
The World Health Organization classifies Delta as a variant of concern, a category that means the variant is capable of increasing transmissibility, causing more severe disease or reducing the benefit of vaccines and treatments.
Delta's "superpower" is its transmissibility, according to Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute for Immunology in San Diego.
Delta is more than two times as contagious as previous SARS-CoV-2 variants, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Studies suggest it may be more likely to put infected people in the hospital than prior forms of the virus.
Delta also can cause symptoms two to three days sooner than the original coronavirus, giving the immune system less time to mount a defense.
People infected with Delta carry around 1,200 times more virus in their noses compared with the original version of the coronavirus. The amount of virus in vaccinated individuals who become infected with Delta is on par with those who are unvaccinated, and both can transmit the virus to others.
In vaccinated people, however, the amount of virus drops more quickly, so they likely spread the virus for a shorter time.
According to the WHO, Delta makes up 99.5% of all genomic sequences reported to public databases and has "outcompeted" other variants in most countries.
A key exception is South America, where Delta has spread more gradually, and other variants previously seen as possible global threats - notably Gamma, Lambda and Mu - still contribute to a significant proportion of reported cases.
Given Delta's global dominance, many vaccine experts now believe that all future variants will be offshoots of Delta. ...
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